A professional poker player on how to save face and think fast
The way that poker is played today is light years from how it was done in the days of the Wild West and gambling in saloons. I have had a lot of success playing cards but 99 per cent of the decisions that I make are detailed mental calculations based on game theory – not the result of quick wits and intuition. Whether at the poker table or the negotiating table, if you fly by the seat of your pants, you will get crushed.I learned early on that in poker you need to bluff. A lot. Bluffing is a crucial strategy, as much in cards as in negotiations. Studying game theory was the key to learning how to do it well. It’s how I figured out the best way to play certain combinations of cards to get results.Once I had grasped the theory, I realised that it wasn’t really “bluffing” as I’d thought of it at all. I was only ever making the correct plays in response to the evolving situation on the table. That discovery was very liberating for me. There’s nothing wrong with getting caught out with a bluff either. It’s all part of the game.Illustration: Peter ZhaoMy doctorate was about the art of decision-making in moments of uncertainty and I worked with collaborators on Wall Street to better understand the pressures of making complex decisions in high-risk conditions in financial markets. I came to understand that high-stakes poker offers a good metaphor for life: it teaches you how to take calculated risks in everyday settings, how to think through probabilities and work out the value of those risks correctly. Above all, poker also trains you in how to deal with emotions, which is crucial if you want to be a winning player. It’s the perfect learning environment because, unlike in everyday life, you get immediate feedback on your decisions.The lessons of poker can apply far beyond the gaming tables, whether it’s about something innocuous such as choosing which restaurant to go to for dinner or about a big, consequential life decision regarding your health. At the core, it’s all about what kinds of risks are worth taking and which aren’t. I would never fly in a helicopter, for instance, or ride a motorcycle: I have poker to thank for that because examining probabilities has now become second nature to me.The poker skill set is helpful in trying to manage financial risk because you become better at making and executing decisions in the moment. You have to hone your ability to recognise when you’re “on tilt”, as we poker players say, which is another way of describing when you start playing poorly because your emotions have got the better of you. This is when your decision-making suffers.These skills are more crucial than ever. To navigate risky decision-making in the current political and economic climate, I would suggest doing as much work as you can ahead of time: mock up a system in which you write down all of the possible factors that you can think of that might shape the outcome of a decision. Don’t just do this exercise mentally: put pen to paper and run through the situation in a notebook because – take it from me – otherwise you will lie to yourself. Assign probabilities and certainty scores as best and as honestly as you can. Have an open, accurate framework that you can then go back to after you make the decision and evaluate yourself.How did you do? Did you consider all of the right factors and weight them correctly? Were those probabilities accurate? If not, how can you adjust, adapt and do better in future? My approach might sound overly cautious but it has proved successful for me. You don’t need a poker player to tell you that nothing in life is ever totally certain. So you need to hedge some of the time. And my most important lesson learned from years of personal thought, academic research and professional poker? Never, ever bet the house.Konnikova is a professional poker player and the author of ‘The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win’, published by Penguin Press.As told to Gregory Scruggs.This article originally appeared in the Opportunity Edition newspaper 2025, created in collaboration with UBS for its Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong.
Meet the Dubai Airports CEO who isn’t waiting on the world to change
Airports have long suffered from an identity crisis. Are they public infrastructure or luxury malls with departure boards? Should we think of them as civic gateways or as necessary evils to endure while en route to somewhere better? For most travellers, it’s a place associated with queues, poor signage and hours lost to bureaucracy. But Paul Griffiths, the long-serving CEO of Dubai Airports, has a fresh idea – and when he starts to share it, he lights up. Leaning forward in his chair, he tells us about his vision of an airport that doesn’t ask for your passport, make you queue for security or hold you hostage at a baggage carousel. “You just turn up, pass through, drop your bag and walk straight onto your plane or into the lounge,” he tells Monocle, “No friction. No stress.”Griffiths comes across as a Willy Wonka of global aviation, sketching out the blueprint for a kind of golden-ticket experience that few of his peers would dare to even imagine. On one wrist, he wears a sleek fitness tracker; on the other is a chunky, two-tone timepiece that catches the light. It’s an apt pairing of precision and polish – much like the aviation ecosystem that he’s trying to build.Looking up: Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Airports(Image: Getty Images)“Why are we still sticking paper tags on suitcases?” he asks incredulously. “It’s demeaning. Bags should be manufactured with a unique serial number, with barcodes printed on. You should be able to track your luggage anywhere in the world and it should be delivered directly to you or to the transportation waiting for you outside the terminal. No more carousels. No more waiting around.”This isn’t a mere fantasy. In Dubai, some of it is already happening. Biometric systems now let passengers pass through immigration using facial recognition, without the need for a passport scan. “The technology is here,” says Griffiths. “What’s holding us back isn’t the tools. It’s human hesitation.”All of this might sound evangelical. But in Dubai, where major infrastructure gets approved and built in a fraction of the time that it takes elsewhere, it isn’t just optimism. “When I first arrived in 2007, Emirates had just ordered 80 A380s,” says Griffiths. “Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum [CEO of Emirates Airline] said one thing to me: ‘Do not constrain the growth of aviation.’ So we got to work.”Dubai International’s passenger capacity has grown from 32 million a year to more than 92 million today; it has been the world’s busiest international airport for 11 consecutive years. “We have achieved that with less than half of the staff that we had back then,” adds Griffiths. “We went from 3,600 to 1,700 people. We’ve had to be more productive, more efficient and more collaborative with our partners than almost any other airport.”That ruthless efficiency now feeds into the development of Dubai’s next big leap: the expansion of Al Maktoum International, a new airport expected to eventually handle 260 million passengers a year. On paper, that number sounds almost absurd – it’s larger than the populations of most countries. But Griffiths is already thinking beyond the scale.“We want it to feel small – not like a huge, monolithic terminal,” he says. “I don’t want people to feel that they’re in an airport. I want them to feel as though they’re simply moving.” The plan involves having several smaller, self-contained terminals – “nodes” – linked by high-speed rail. “Think of it as eight perfectly designed mini airports, stitched together. We can use AI to optimise passenger flows. If 100 people on a flight are transferring to another, the system should direct that aircraft to a gate nearby, reducing walking distances.”If Griffiths sounds like a futurist, he’s also a pragmatist. He is frustrated by what he perceives as the inertia plaguing his industry. “So many airports are still being designed around outdated processes,” he says. “Even when they build new infrastructure, it’s wrapped in the same old rules. We used to design buildings and retrofit technology. Now we need to do the opposite: design buildings around the technology that we want.” He points to the dehumanising experience of modern travel: the security shuffle, the repeated document checks, the slow-moving queues. “It’s like we’ve forgotten that customers are human beings,” he says. “The industry has accepted mediocrity. Staff aren’t motivated. Passengers aren’t respected. And most airports, especially in Europe and North America, seem to have given up trying.”That makes Dubai an outlier but Griffiths sees his role as more than just running an efficient operation. He considers Dubai Airports to be a global prototype. “All we can do is lead by example,” he says. “If our ideas are copied by others, that’s fantastic. This isn’t about winning. It’s about improving the experience for travellers everywhere.”The real breakthrough will be in reducing the time that things take. “I’ve never met anyone – apart from a few aviation nerds – who actually wants to spend more time in an airport. People would rather get where they’re going. So why are we still telling people to show up three hours early? That should be a thing of the past.”If Al Maktoum International hits its 2032 target, traffic will start being moved from Dubai International to the new site – a big migration that Griffiths acknowledges will be “an extraordinary logistical challenge”. But he’s confident. “We’ve opened every terminal in Dubai on time and without fuss. We intend to do the same again.” And what becomes of Dubai International, the current crown jewel? “That’s for the government to decide,” he says. “But the development potential is enormous. Think of what Hong Kong did with the old Kai Tak airport. This land could reshape the city.”Griffiths, now approaching 50 years in the aviation industry, isn’t ready to step away just yet. He is still energised by the challenge. “We must stop thinking incrementally,” he says. “If Google, Amazon and Uber reimagined entire industries, why can’t we do the same with airports? After all, the future’s here. We just need to walk through it.”This story originally appeared in The Monocle Minute…Monocle’s free-to-read daily newsletter. Sign up to get insight from Monocle in your inbox every day.Your EmailSubscribe
Flow Hive is the beekeeping startup that simplified honey harvesting and scaled globally
Third-generation beekeeper Cedar Anderson was frustrated by the labour-intensive process of extracting honey from his hives. So, in 2015, he and his father set about developing a device that could make apiculture easier and accessible to more people. Ten years on, the Andersons are reinventing the industry with Flow Hive, a mechanism that allows honey to be withdrawn with ease.Honey flowing into waiting jarsApiary in Byron BayAt the heart of the product is a series of rectangular plastic frames, which bees fill with wax and store honey inside, just as they would a honeycomb. To collect its contents, the beekeeper inserts a “flow key” into the top of the hive and turns it, causing the honeycomb cells inside to break. Golden honey then flows through sealed channels inside the frame and out through tubes into collection jars. Unlike conventional apiaries, which require complex equipment to extract honey from hives, the Andersons’ solution requires minimal fuss.Co-founders Cedar and Stuart AndersonWhile the contraption was originally aimed at the commercial honey-making industry (it is capable of holding as much as 20kg), the Andersons soon realised that the streamlined process that Flow Hive offers would appeal to urban beekeepers too.The entrance keeps wasps and other invaders outBusy at workFrom humble beginnings in a tin shed, Flow Hive has built a global business with thoughtful design and environmental awareness. More than 100,000 Flow Hives have been installed in 130 countries, turning rooftops, balconies and suburban gardens into havens for pollinators. What began as a father-son side project now employs more than 50 staff, with its headquarters still nestled among the gum trees of their farm. Its manufacturing process has scaled efficiently, combining traditional joinery with streamlined digital production of honeycomb frames, allowing the business to meet surging demand.Honey from the hives in Byron BayFlow Hive frame, filled with beesThe firm has also expanded its range to include pollinator-friendly gardening products, embedding itself within the climate-conscious home-and-garden movement. In redefining how we harvest honey, it has also reframed what it means to be a modern manufacturer: local, thoughtful and purpose-driven. Business is busier than ever. Want more stories like these in your inbox?Sign up to Monocle’s email newsletters to stay on top of news and opinion, plus the latest from the magazine, radio, film and shop.Your EmailSubscribe
Long neglected on dusty shelves in Corsican bars, Cap Corse is now looking to make an international comeback
In Jacques Deray’s 1974 filmBorsalino & Cie, Alain Delon, the epitome of French cool in his hat and double-breasted suit, takes revenge on his enemies in glamorous locales, where dapper card sharks enjoy generous pours of ruby-red Cap Corse. After decades confined to the dusty shelves of old-fashioned bars on Napoleon’s native island, this Corsican liqueur is spritzing its way back to prominence.Cap Corse, which comes in white and red variants, is a wine-based drink infused with tree bark, citrus fruit and herbs. LN Mattei, the company that distils it, was founded in the early 1870s. The tipple reached the peak of its popularity during the early 20th century. In the decades after the Second World War, however, it steadily lost its lustre, becoming a drink that mostly appealed to older Corsicans who remembered its glory days. Monocle magazine, Mattei / Bastia / Corse 06-2025Inside the shopIn 2016, Corsica’s Groupe Boisson Corse acquired LN Mattei and kick-started a new era of expansion. It has gone from producing 80,000 bottles, sold almost exclusively in Corsica, to making 400,000 bottles today, 15 per cent of which are exported.“Over time, Cap Corse had evolved to emphasise the bitterness of cinchona bark,” says Patrice Gontier Ackermann, LN Mattei’s general manager. “To appeal to a broader audience, we revived the original recipe of our founder, Louis Napoléon Mattei, which balances sweetness and bitterness.” This change was informed by the tastes of the current golden age of mixology but also by the rise of the Aperol spritz, which, in less than a decade, has gone from a Venetian aperitivo to a global phenomenon. (Aperol is now the most valuable brand in the Campari group’s European portfolio.) “We recognised that offering a quirky Corsican alternative had significant potential,” says Gontier Ackermann.Mattei’s historic flagship shopHeritage brandingThe “Capo Spritz” is now served in bars across the island in large LN Mattei-branded glasses that will look familiar to Aperol fans. Expect to see these gracing a Mediterranean bar this summer. With just 350,000 or so permanent residents in Corsica and near-universal brand recognition on the island, LN Mattei needs to lean hard on exports for future growth. By 2030 it plans to double production to 800,000 bottles, with half sold outside Corsica.Cap Corse’s resurgence mirrors the island’s rise as a destination, increasingly attracting tourists from beyond France. The number of foreign visitors was up by 6 per cent last year, hitting an all-time high. LN Mattei’s shop in Bastia’s Place Saint Nicolas is an especially strong asset. Established by the company’s founder in 1872, it’s an officially recognised historical landmark. The shop, known for its dark-red open cabinets and exposed stone walls, stocks a wide array of Corsican products alongside the booze.An alcohol-free version of the apéritif is currently in the works. “That could become an important market for us in the years to come,” says Gontier Ackermann. After long being overlooked, Cap Corse is seeking to shake things up. “If we don’t keep moving, we could disappear.”
The commute: Join José Miguel de Abreu biking from Porto to the central Ribiera district
In the first of a new series joining people we admire on their way to work, we hitch a ride with Portuguese entrepreneur José Miguel de Abreu, co-founder of menswear brand La Paz. As a keen surfer and photographer, De Abreu has an eye for the sublime.He uses his short scoot east from his home in the riverside neighbourhood of Lordelo do Ouro to the central Ribeira district to study the light on the water, stop at a portside café to see what the locals are wearing and unplug a little before the day ahead.Ah, you’ve got a helmet on, so perhaps you’re not walking to work. Tell us about your vehicle of choice.It’s a BMW c400 GT motorcycle that I’ve had for the past two years. It’s on the bigger side so perfect for riding in the city.A soundtrack? Are there any headphones under those flaps?That’s not possible, I’m afraid. I’ve got to listen out for other vehicles. An accident in a car could leave you with a few scratches. On a motorbike, you’re a little more exposed.And for the day, what reading material do you bring?I’ll always pack a book as well as my computer. I’m readingA Whole Lifeby Robert Seethaler andThe Way of the Worldby Swiss photographer Nicolas Bouvier. I also packPúblico,a Portuguese daily, to keep me informed.Best time to beat the traffic?In Porto it’s about 08.30. There’s lots of investment in transport for commuters and there are a few metro lines under construction. But right now, there’s a lot of congestion because often only one lane on most roads is available. So it gets busy in the morning; a journey of 4km could take 40 minutes. People in cars get stuck – that’s why I ride.Any pit-stops?Most mornings there’s an espresso at Paparoca da Foz, a café in the port where the Douro River meets the ocean. I soak in the atmosphere and see the locals; it’s very different to the city centre.And, since you’re in the business, let’s talk outfits. No leathers?In winter, I’ll wear a heavier jacket, which helps with safety. Usually it’s just the clothes I’m wearing that day.How is Porto’s road etiquette?Drivers here don’t beep their horns too much. They’re pretty polite and respectful. Even so, if you’re on a motorbike like me, you have to keep your eyes peeled.Some people see the commute as a means to an end but you seem to enjoy it. What’s the best bit?The view. There’s water everywhere, with bridges taking me over the river and the ocean on the horizon. In the evening the light on the waves is beautiful.
Defence dominates the skies as drones take off at the Paris Air Show
“The Choice of Sovereignty”, “Protecting Democracy” and “Ready for the Unknown”. Not a promotional campaign for the US Navy Seals but rather the slogans that were emblazoned on chalets and billboards belonging respectively to Dassault Aviation, Helsing and Airbus at this week’s Paris Air Show. Though only about a third of the 2,400 brands exhibiting this year are from the defence sector, the atmosphere at the show is decidedly militaristic. The fair has been on a hawkish turn since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the recent fraying of security ties between the US and Europe has kicked things up another notch. For anyone in attendance who still doubted that times had well and truly changed for Europe’s defence industry, the tarmac at Le Bourget offered an unequivocal reality check: a giant Airbus A400M Atlas military transport aircraft, all of Thales’s new radar systems (including the Ground Fire 300 that can track up to 1,000 targets simultaneously) and a veritable arsenal of missiles. Despite the presence of these big hitters, drones were the star of the show. Scores of unmanned aircraft were on display, capable of everything from medical deliveries to long-range airstrikes on the battlefield. In an era when, as one high-ranking European military officer told me, “a $100 toy can destroy a $100m plane,” the relationship between warfare and aviation is being reimagined. In the future, expect to see drone swarms deployed around the next generation of fighter jets, ready to serve as projectiles or sacrificial shields.Flag carrier: Airbus wins big at the Paris Air Show but UAVs are front and centre(Image: Paris Air Show)This is not to say that defence fully eclipsed commercial aviation at the Paris show. With Boeing focused on managing the fallout from the crash of a 787-8 Dreamliner in Ahmedabad, long-time rival Airbus came out swinging, with new deals worth $10bn (€8.6bn) to sell 132 planes to Saudi Arabia, as well as Polish and Japanese operators. The Saudi deals, including 25 A350-1000s for Riyadh Air (an airline that has yet to fly), are emblematic of a bullish commercial-flight industry that still expects to enjoy at least 4 per cent growth each year for the foreseeable future – especially in ambitious markets looking for an edge on their regional rivals.“I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar to what has happened in the fashion industry took place in the commercial-aviation space,” one industry insider told me at the Aéroports de Paris chalet. “The market could become dominated by low-cost airlines on one side and premium players on the other, with not much wriggle room in the middle.”Bouvier is Monocle’s Paris bureau chief. For some longer-haul reading, fly over to our take on how Romania’s aviation gamble could reshape the nation’s global standing and the hop-on, hop-off jet service disrupting short-haul flights, via the way Andalusia is providing a clear runway to major players in the aerospace industry.This story originally appeared in The Monocle Minute…Monocle’s free-to-read daily newsletter. Sign up to get insight from Monocle in your inbox every day.Your EmailSubscribe